One of the most ominous risks for Europe is that of a major change in Atlantic ocean currents. Recent science suggests it has been greatly underestimated in the past -including by me, having worked on it for over 30 years. Here my half-hour presentation in Vilnius a week ago!

Jun 7, 2024 Β· 12:01 PM UTC

Replying to @rahmstorf
@rahmstorf should we be freaking out? you don't look particularly freaked out. how do you feel about all this personally? people subconsciously calibrate their level of concern based on the perceived level of concern by the one who delivers the news.
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Great question. Should physicists like me try to convey emotion in their public talks, or should we just present the facts in a sober manner? What do readers think?
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For a youtube video I'd definitely open with the post-AMOC world map.
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On tipping points, I think this visualization really helps to explain it:
Great visualization of something terrible, a climate tipping point. This shows how a rainforest can tip into rapid deforestation with longer droughts, as global warming worsens. Similar tipping points can cause changes in ocean currents and ice sheetsπŸ‘‡
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Replying to @rahmstorf
Thank you so much for sharing, Professor Rahmstorf. You explain it very well. It's both extremely interesting and frightening! I will write about it (using your recent paper of course) on my ClimateChangePost platform. climatechangepost.com
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Thanks Stefan. I’ve now completely forgotten what I was supposed to be doing for the rest of the day. I’m just thinking of my beautiful, carefree grandkids.
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Replying to @rahmstorf
Very good lecture, thank you. It still amazes me that while we all agree that we must avoid this "by any cost" as you say, even among German climate scientists the concept of restarting clean low carbon nuclear power is an anathema. Even when Germany is massivley building new LNG ports as we speak and is going to burn coal much longer than year 2030 promised by antinuclear politicians.
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Are you not aware of regenerative agriculture? Removing excess CO2 from the atmosphere need not be β€œhugely expensive.” To the contrary, it can be profitable while improving water & food security, restoring wildlife habitat, replenishing dried-up rivers, and reviving rural areas.
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Replying to @rahmstorf
We gotta get those trillion trees planted! 🌳
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Hi Professor @rahmstorf, Thank you for your presentation, publications, books, and tireless contributions in climate science. I'm curious about the likelihood of a potential causal chain. In the 9th episode of Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey titled "The Lost Worlds of Planet Earth," host Neil deGrasse Tyson discusses the Permian-Triassic extinction event and mentions that the shutdown of ocean currents led to the spread of anaerobic bacteria, which "belched hydrogen sulfide gas into the oceans and atmosphere, poisoning life and further weakening the food chain." He also states that "The hydrogen sulfide reacted with the sun's ultraviolet light, ripping apart the planet's ozone layer." Considering the potential future shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to climate change, I am curious about the following: 1) In the event of an AMOC shutdown, how likely is it that anaerobic bacteria would bloom and release significant amounts of hydrogen sulfide gas into the atmosphere? 2) If this were to occur, could the released hydrogen sulfide gas react with UV light and deplete the ozone layer, as described in the Cosmos episode about the Permian-Triassic extinction? I would greatly appreciate any insights you could provide on the likelihood of this specific causal chain (AMOC shutdown β†’ anaerobic bacteria bloom β†’ hydrogen sulfide release β†’ ozone depletion) based on current scientific understanding. If there are any relevant studies or papers that explore this potential link, I would be very interested in learning about them. Thanks again for all of your work. Best regards.
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Replying to @rahmstorf
Very sobering stuff. Thanks for making it so clear for the non-expert. If there was ever a time to vote as our conscience tells us, this is it.
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This is tremendous, Stefan, I have no words. It will be impossible to adapt society to such a dramatic change, the collapse of plantations worldwide, the massive migrations... what a pity, my God.
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thank you Prof! this is presented so well, with numerous references and @IPCC_CH citations "Ya, it's not looking so good"
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This is a fraud. It is nothing but propaganda.
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Thank you for sharing this important lecture and for all the work you have done on the AMOC and climate change.
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Oof, had hopes that the cooling of the northern hemisphere would help mitigate the overall warming trend but he dashed them! & the observation that the pronounced cold/low pressure area butting up against the hot/high pressure area means Europe gonna be STORMY also stung.
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Replying to @rahmstorf
🚨Corporate doomster nonsense.
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Replying to @rahmstorf
A 20 degree fall in temperatures over Uk and Europe? Is that correct?
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One thing im certain of is that #climatechange is underestimated everywhere by everybody.
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Replying to @rahmstorf
Thank you for all the hard work that you put in this over the years! My question is, what exactly are the consequences. You talked about the rain falls and both hemispheres having the same temperature, but what does it mean? Are there any models for the impact per EU country?
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Replying to @rahmstorf
Thanks for sharing it, so I can keep myself updated 😊
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I think too many dont understand why a 2 or 3 degree rise is so catastrophic. They think, oh if its 2 degrees warmer, l can just take my coat off.
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Replying to @rahmstorf
30 years and you were wrong? And in 30 more years it will be discovered you were wrong again. Exactly how much do you make from β€œstudying” global warming? I’m betting a small fortune
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