$IREN My Earnings Wishlist pt1
Since many have posted their wishlist before me, I will take a different approach, and will just write down anything that I think is likely to happen in the coming 6-12 months, which interests me, and hasn't been talked about yet, or not into much detail.
Chapter 1: New Sites
IREN has always said they have a >1 GW pipeline. Last year, Dan Roberts said: "And that can be any number above 1GW". More recent communication mentioned "Multi-GW Pipeline", which brings the bare minimum to 2GW, and that's on top of 2.91GW of disclosed, contracted power.
Yesterday, Mike Alfred said that the current 200MW deal with
$MSFT is a "tiny part" of their total portfolio.
He has also made comments like "Just wait until you see the entire pipeline".
Also yesterday, we heard Dan mention "Outside of Texas & Globally", for the locations of their other sites.
Within my subscriber group, we keep track of the land that is being optioned and bought by
$IREN. Amongst these sites, we try to assess which one is the most likely to be a candidate for a connection agreement, and subsequent energization approval.
Currently, the interest has shifted outside of Texas, and I believe that's why more recently we have heard the "global" pipeline come back into the picture.
This is also why Dan said "Outside of Texas and Globally".
Now, I wasn't going to really talk about development sites. And I think your guess is as good as mine, if you would have the information that I have. So I will not be speculating on particular sites. But will give my realistic expectation for these earnings, or at the latest, somewhere in the coming 6-12 months.
Because we know that the 2025-2027 window is the most valuable when it comes to Megawatts, and we have some information that indicates a choice will have to be made before the end of this year with regards to a specific new project — I think a general expectation is in order for the wishlist of the earnings of Thursday.
Prediction:
$IREN's first new project will either be in Asia-Pacific ("Globally"), or in Oklahoma ("Outside of Texas").
Now I promised not to speculate on particular sites, so I will mostly focus on explaining why I think Asia-Pacific is the most likely to be next.
Thanks to one of my best
$IREN informers, I was notified of a new job listing by a recruiter in Sydney that is specficially looking for commercial jobs.
You may be aware of IREN's job listings on HiBob or LinkedIn, but despite there being 93 open positions listed there, it's still not all that they are looking to hire.
But lo and behold: there is a new listing at their commercial recruit which mentions the following:
Senior Manager, Corporate Development (AI Data centres - Sydney & Vancouver
Our client is a global operator in the digital infrastructure sector, developing and managing high-performance computing (HPC) facilities powered by renewable energy. The business owns and operates large-scale data-centre campuses across North America, with active expansion into the Asia-Pacific region. By combining low-cost renewable power with advanced compute infrastructure, the company is helping accelerate the global energy transition and support the next generation of AI and HPC applications.
Now it gets even more interesting when we read the job description:
We are seeking two commercially focused professionals to lead M&A transactions from origination through execution. Sitting at the intersection of corporate development, project development, and investment execution, these roles will drive complex deals that underpin the company’s global expansion pipeline.
End-to-end transaction management: Lead or co-lead M&A processes including initial engagement with counterparties, structuring, due diligence, negotiation of binding documentation, and execution.
Financial and risk analysis: Build and review models to evaluate potential returns, sensitivities, and risk exposures across acquisition, partnership, and joint-venture structures.
Now, you may remember I made a post last week about
@IREN_Ltd's ARS:
x.com/FransBakker9812/status…
One interesting paragraph that I didn't talk about yet, was the M&A paragraph:
Consider pursuing strategic acquisitions and other value enhancing opportunities
We may strategically assess acquisition opportunities where we believe such transactions can accelerate our strategic roadmap through horizontal or vertical integration, expanding capacity, or gaining intellectual property that may help strengthen our competitive advantage.
In addition, we may from time to time, seek to dispose of, or monetize, assets where we believe we can receive value from any such disposition, or monetization, that is accretive to the business.
Now before I close this topic, and give my final words on the expectations I have for the announcement of a new site, I want to shortly address the
@McnallieM interview with Patrick Fleury that was released yesterday.
I think it's one thing to be proud of your own customers and partners by calling them "the best in the world", it's also fine if you think that everyone is imitating your "first ever financial engineering". But I think it's not very classy to throw shade on Texas data center companies, especially peers, that have a pipeline, and long standing relationships with T(D)SP's, and have a realistic line of sight to power.
Just because there is 200GW of queued capacity, doesn't mean that seasoned operators like
$CIFR and
$IREN are making things up.
I have evidence in my possession that demonstrates that the companies I am invested in that operate in Texas, have all the means and connections to get these new sites energized.
But for the sake of this notion that "having all your sites in Texas is a concentration risk", I am happy to reiterate that
$IREN has in fact got a pipeline that expands outside of Texas, and most likely will see an announcement in Asia Pacific, or Oklahoma, within the coming 6-12 months.
So let's see if we get something tomorrow, or if it will just be some extra power coming to Childress or Canada. But almost 1 year after the announcement of Sweetwater 2 — I am confident that the time is near that we hear from a new site, potentially outside of Texas or globally.